Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Steadies Near $90,000 Even as ETF Outflows Cap Upside
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Bitcoin’s rebound above $90,000 is looking less like a crypto-driven surge and more like a classic year-end risk reset, according to market maker Flowdesk, which said in a recent note that short covering and dip buying have helped stabilize trading as expectations for a December rate cut surge.
The broader market is pulling crypto along with it. QCP says inflation is still sticky, labor data is weakening, and credit risk is flashing in AI-linked equities, all of which could complicate the current relief rally.
ETF outflows remain a headwind, and prediction markets show traders expect bitcoin to stay capped near $92,000 through the end of the month. With volatility crushed into the US holiday and desks focused on the 12 December FOMC, crypto is trading as a macro asset rather than on sector-specific news.
Prediction markets reflect the same rangebound tone. Polymarket shows traders assigning a 74% probability that bitcoin’s weekly high will remain capped near $92,000 through the end of November.
The odds of touching $96,000 or higher are in the single digits, which aligns with desk commentary that rallies into the mid $90,000s are likely to meet ETF-related supply.
Support remains clustered in the $80,000 to $82,000 zone after last week’s washout, and crypto continues to trade as an expression of broader market risk appetite rather than on sector-specific news.
Absent a shift in macro conditions, the path of least resistance is more sideways trading.
BTC: Bitcoin is drifting in a tight band around the low $90,000s, with short covering lifting prices off last week’s lows while ETF outflows cap every attempt to push higher.
ETH: Ether is hovering just above $3,000, attracting some dip buying but still struggling to build momentum after a month of heavier selling than bitcoin.
Gold: Gold’s next leg higher is being fueled by falling rates, a weaker dollar, rising uncertainty and fading enthusiasm for AI and crypto, and Wells Fargo’s Sameer Samana telling Kitco News the uptrend remains intact as investors turn to gold as a key diversifier, with prices now consolidating around $4,150 to $4,170 after a failed push above $4,160 while expectations for a December Fed cut and persistent geopolitical tension keep the broader path tilted upward.
